Vælgere på Vippen
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Engsbye, Morten1, Forfatter
Møller Hansen, Kasper2, Vejleder
1Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet, Københavns Universitet, København, Danmark, diskurs:7001              
2Institut for Statskundskab, Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet, Københavns Universitet, København, Danmark, diskurs:7003              
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Ukontrollerede emneord: Vælgeradfærd, vælgerpræferencer, vælgerpotentiale, electoral utilites. PTV
 Abstract: During the last forty years, the Danish electorate has undergone a rapid decline in partisanship and today voters, to an increasing extent, consider more than one party. However, only very little is known about voters’ multiparty preferences. The aim of this thesis is to identify the voters with mul-tiparty preferences as well as to examine each party’s potential electorate. This is done to shed light on different parties’ chances of converting potential voters into actual voters, and also in terms of mapping the overlapping party potentials, as this is the scene of the real competition between the parties.
Using the Propensity To Vote approach (PTV), the thesis finds that a substantial part of the Danish electorate has preferences for more than one party and that one in four voters are unable to differentiate between their most preferred parties. By further investigating the composition of the eight Danish parties in terms of their potential electorate, it is shown that there currently exist sig-nificant differences between the Danish parties in parliament. The largest Danish party, the Liberals, both has a substantial amount of potential voters whom they can easily attract and also the largest share of voters without any preferences for other parties. Opposite, the smaller parties, namely the Socialist People’s Party and Liberal Alliance, have such a small amount of potential voters that they need to attract voters with preferences for other parties in order to stay above the 2 % threshold.
In examining potential voters’ overlapping party preferences, it is then shown that the largest overlaps occur within the two parliamentary caucuses. While voter preferences are usually analyzed through a two-dimensional scale, the overlap in the potential electorates suggests that the party competition is merely one-dimensional. Following from this, one of the major findings of the thesis is the fact that 10 % of the Danish electorate has high preferences for a party in each of the two parliamentary caucuses. This means that this group is most likely to decide the prime ministerial outcome of elections.
Lastly, it is shown that young voters and voters with medium and long education are – to-gether with those unsatisfied with their most preferred party and the so-called “party-shifters” – most likely to have preferences for more than one party. Surprisingly, the voter’s ideological position has no impact on the number of parties they prefer.
In conclusion, the thesis argues that the current Danish electoral research could benefit greatly from taking these preferences into account. It provides further knowledge on the political landscape and on various parties’ opportunity for utilizing their potential electorate. It challenges electoral scholars in Denmark to rethink the dependent variable from the categorical variable “party choice” into the metric variable “party preference”. This would indeed yield more insights into the core of the electoral research – voter preferences.

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Bogmærk denne post:
 Type: Speciale
Alternativ titel: - En analyse af danske partiers vælgerpotentialer
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Sprog: Danish - dan
 Datoer: 2013-12-02
 Sider: -
 Publiceringsinfo: København : Københavns Universitet
 Indholdsfortegnelse: -
 Note: -
 Type: Speciale
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