A Theory of Democratization
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Bytoft Pheiffer, Agnete1, Forfatter
Hansen, Henrik 2, Vejleder
1Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet, Københavns Universitet, København, Danmark, diskurs:7001              
2Økonomisk Institut, Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet, Københavns Universitet, København, Danmark, diskurs:7014              
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Ukontrollerede emneord: Democracy, Acemoglu and Robinson, Arab Spring
 Abstract: The democracy literature has for some time studied the creation of democracy and the underlying factors. Most remarkable is the modernization theory, which states that the more economically evolved a country is, the more likely is the transition to democracy. In this thesis, we study another theory introduced by Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson in their book "Economic origins of dictatorship and democracy", which states that democratic improvements follow economic shocks. In former work, the model has successfully been tested on panel data for sub-Saharan African countries using rainfall data. Here, we test whether the model can be applied on a single event, the Arab Spring. Indeed, we find an indication that this is the case. Using a linear probability model, we find that instrumenting the change in GDP per capita growth 2008-2009 that this has a positive effect on the prediction of uprising in 2011, but through the effect on a change in self-reported thriving 2009-2010. This result is robust to the introduction of a non-linear model, the probit model and assuming homoscedasticity.
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Bogmærk denne post:
 Type: Speciale
Alternativ titel: Can it be applied on the Arab Spring?
Alternativ titel: En demokratiseringsmodel
Alternativ titel: Kan den overføres til det Arabiske Forår?
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Sprog: English - eng
 Datoer: 2013-04-23
 Sider: -
 Publiceringsinfo: København : Københavns Universitet
 Indholdsfortegnelse: 1 Introduction 6
2 Concepts in the Democracy Literature 9
2.1 Assumptions . 9
2.2 Collective Decision-Making . 10
2.3 The Collective Action Problem . 11
2.4 Commitment Problem 12
2.5 Democracy 13
3 Democratization 14
3.1 The Static Model of Democratization 14
3.2 The Role for Inequality in the Democratization Process . 21
3.3 A Dynamic Democratization Model . 22
4 Middle Class 24
4.1 Three-group Model 24
4.2 Emergence of Partial Democracy 25
4.3 From Partial to Full Democracy . 28
5 Concluding Remarks and Critics 32
6 The Arab World 35
6.1 Democratic Deficits in the Arab World . 35
6.2 Structural changes in the Arab World . 40
7 The Arab Spring 42
7.1 Resume 42
7.2 Influencing factors 43
7.3 Determinants of the Uprisings 45
7.4 Thriving0910 . 49
7.5 IV Estimation . 53
7.6 Robustness Check 53
8 Discussion 58
9 Conclusion 60
A Data 62
B Variables 65
C Insignificant results 67
 Note: -
 Type: Speciale
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