The Effect of Incarceration
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Albæk Nielsen, Alva1, Forfatter
Leth-Petersen, Søren2, Vejleder
1Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet, Københavns Universitet, København, Danmark, diskurs:7001              
2Økonomisk Institut, Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet, Københavns Universitet, København, Danmark, diskurs:7014              
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Ukontrollerede emneord: Kriminalitet, straf, effektmåling
 Abstract: International scholars have pointed towards the tendency of increased reliance on incarceration and harsher punishments across the world. The Danish population has also experienced a number of changes in the penal code from the middle of the 90’s. Several of these have increased the length of time for a given crime a person can be sentenced to the severest correctional sanction available in Denmark: Incarceration. Incarceration however has costs, for the individual as well as for society. It thus seems important to investigate whether society actually gains the expected benefit from prisons – in other words: that time in prison works according to the purpose. The purposes of incarceration are many. One of the aims is however to prevent further criminal activity from the offender. In this study, I therefore set out to investigate whether longer incarceration leads to a lower probability of recidivism. As noted by international scholars, our current knowledge on the ‘dose-response’ relationship in regards to prison time and recidivism is severely limited, and I hope to fill part of this gap with this dissertation.
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 Type: Speciale
Alternativ titel: Does Longer Incarceration Lead to a Lower Probability of Recidivism?
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Sprog: English - eng
 Datoer: 2012-11-27
 Sider: -
 Publiceringsinfo: København : Københavns Universitet
 Indholdsfortegnelse: Dissertation
Foreword 2
Abstract 3
Content of This Dissertation 6
1. Why Study Incarceration? – Introduction to This Thesis 8
1.1. Research Question 9
2. Previous Results on Incarceration Lengths and the Effect on Reoffending 11
3. Contribution of This Dissertation 14
4. The Danish Context . 16
4.1. The Danish Penal Code and the Bill of June, 2002 16
4.2. What Happens in the Danish Prisons? 16
5. Theoretical Framework . 18
5.1. What is the Idea behind Incarceration? 18
5.2. What May Cause Longer Incarceration to Reduce Recidivism? 20
5.3. Risk and Impatience – Two Things Which May Modify the Deterrence Effect? . 23
5.4. What May Cause Longer Incarceration to Increase Recidivism? 26
6. Data 28
6.1. Data on Crime 28
6.2. Controls . 30
6.3. Creating the Data Set 32
7. Econometric Framework . 36
7.1. Identification . 36
7.2. Specification of the Parametric Model 43
8. Results 45
8.1. Descriptive Statistics on Violent Crimes 45
8.2. Did the Reform Have an Effect on Incarceration Lengths? . 47
8.3. Summary Statistics on Recidivism . 51
8.4. Estimating the Effect of the Reform on Recidivism. 54
8.5. Including Interaction Terms 56
9. Robustness Checks 58
9.1. Redefining Recidivism . 58
9.2. Narrowing Down the Window – Including Only Incarcerations in 2001 - 2003 60
9.3. With One Cohort Included Each Year 63
9.4. Eliminating Observations Just After the Reform . 66
10. Discussion 71
11. Conclusion . 73
12. References . 76
13. Appendix . 82
13.1. Estimating the Effect of the Reform on Recidivism. 82
13.2. Including only incarcerations 2001 – 2003 83
13.3. With One Cohort Included Each Year 85
13.4. Eliminating Observations Just After the Reform . 87
 Note: -
 Type: Speciale
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