Prediction Markets and Internet search
Item is


Mølgaard, Jakob Rudbeck1, Forfatter
Norman Sørensen, Peter 2, Vejleder
1Økonomisk Institut, Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet, Københavns Universitet, København, Danmark, diskurs:7014              
2Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet, Københavns Universitet, København, Danmark, diskurs:7001              
skjul Ophav
Vis Ophav


Ukontrollerede emneord: prediction markets, market efficiency, Internet search, information
 Abstract: The current time period has appropriately been named the information age, after the pervasive spread of the Internet and the information it allows people to access. However, as more information has become available it has become increasingly more difficult to find specific pieces of information. To solve this problem many different indexing and sorting tools exist online but the ubiquitous information access point has become the search engine provided by Google Inc. Supplied user-specified search queries, the tool uses a highly sophisticated algorithm to scour the Internet and presents the user with information deemed most relevant to the particular search term. This search-behavior is stored by Google and an aggregation of it is made publicly available through the online feature Google Insights for Search. With this instrument, frequency of searches over time for a specific search term can be accessed giving the user an insight into how the public behaves online. Given that this tool is relatively new, there has been little investigation into its potential and possible applications. It is this potential that is the focus of the thesis, specifically it is investigated whether the frequency of Google searches for a specific search terms can be used as an indicator of news salience for this term. To investigate this, a validation is performed using another measure of news salience in the form of price changes on contracts in political prediction markets.
skjul Indhold
Vis Indhold


Speciale.pdf (Hovedtekst)
Mime-type / størrelse:
application/pdf / 6MB
Copyright dato:
Copyright information:
De fulde rettigheder til dette materiale tilhører forfatteren.
skjul Filer
Vis Filer


Bogmærk denne post:
 Type: Speciale
Alternativ titel: Using price efficiency to validate Google Insights for Search as a measure of news salience
skjul Basal
Vis Basal


Vis Links


Sprog: English - eng
 Datoer: 2011-09-30
 Sider: -
 Publiceringsinfo: København : Københavns Universitet
 Indholdsfortegnelse: 1 Introduction 7
2 News salience and dissemination of new information 10
3 Prediction Markets 12
3.1 Background . 12
Iowa Electronic Market 13
Corporate Prediction Markets 16
Real-money versus play-money markets . 17
Prediction markets today . 19
3.2 Theory 21
Market efficiency . 21
Predicting outcomes using price . 26
3.4. IEM in the 2008 U.S. Presidential race 31
4 Internet search 35
4.1 Internet usage 35
4.2 Google Insight for Search . 36
4.3 Google search in the 2008 U.S. Presidential race . 40
5 Analysis 45
5.1 Similar and relevant studies 45
5.2 Data description 48
5.3 Hypotheses . 50
5.4 Correlation between prediction market price and online public interest 54
5.5 Timing of price changes versus search frequencies 58
5.6 Summary 67
6 Discussion 68
7 Conclusion 71
7.1 Future research . 73
Bibliography 74
Appendix 78
 Note: -
 Type: Speciale
skjul Detaljer
Vis Detaljer


Vis Kilde