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  Afghanistan - fanget i midten?
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 Ophav:
Schlüter, Sine Valbjørn1, Forfatter
Berg Christiansen, Stine1, Forfatter
Søby Kristensen, Kristian2, Vejleder
Tilknytninger:
1Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet, Københavns Universitet, København, Danmark, diskurs:7001              
2Institut for Statskundskab, Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet, Københavns Universitet, København, Danmark, diskurs:7003              
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Ukontrollerede emneord: Afghanistan, RSCT, RSC, regional sikkerhedsteori
 Abstract: On the basis of Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver’s Regional Security Complex Theory, as presented in the book Regions and Powers from 2003, this thesis examines Afghanistan as an insulator-state situated between three different regional security complexes – RSC South Asia, RSC Middle East and RSC Central Asia – and how spill-over from the three affects the security situation in Afghanistan. There seems to be a paradox in the Western articulation of a need for a regional effort in Afghanistan, and the way the countries in the three surrounding regions cooperate – as their behaviour seems determined by security dynamics and conflict formations in their own respective RSCs. The thesis argues that this situation prevents a regional solution in Afghanistan.
The analysis is in an empirical analysis of the four levels of analysis – the Domestically, the Regional, the Inter-Regional and the Global level – in the security constellation in each RSC with a specific focus on identifying the main spill-over effects from each RSC to Afghanistan. Based on this identification it is discussed how the spill-over is expected to affect the security situation in Afghanistan – now, when the international coalition is present – and in the future, as the international exit-strategies are carried out.
It is shown that spill-over from the three RSCs affect the security situation in Afghanistan – a spill-over which is expected to increase as the international coalitions exit. The thesis shows that it is not to be expected that the powers from the surrounding RSCs will be able to cooperate, as their behaviour will continue to be determined by the security dynamics and main conflict formations in their respective RSCs. Simultaneously the discussion shows that the regional efforts in Afghanistan are in danger of becoming even more determined by the security dynamics in the surrounding RSCs, as the international penetration decreases. Even though the international security forces have focused on trying to create an environment of cooperation between the main powers in the three RSCs, this seems unachievable for now
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Copyright dato:
2012-06-13
Copyright information:
De fulde rettigheder til dette materiale tilhører forfatteren.
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Bogmærk denne post: https://diskurs.kb.dk/item/diskurs:31140:1
 Type: Speciale
Alternativ titel: En insulator-stat imellem tre regionale sikkerhedskomplekser.
Alternativ titel: Afghanistan - caught in the middle?
Alternativ titel: An insulator-state between three regional security complexes.
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Detaljer

Sprog: Danish - dan
 Datoer: 2012-04-02
 Sider: -
 Publiceringsinfo: København : Københavns Universitet
 Indholdsfortegnelse: 1.0 ABSTRACT 6
2.0 INDLEDNING 7
2.1 DISPOSITION 9
3.0 TEORI 10
3.1 TEORETISK INDPLACERING 10
3.2 BEGRUNDELSE FOR VALG AF TEORETISK RAMME 13
3.3 REGIONAL SECURITY COMPLEX THEORY - RSCT 16
3.3.1 KARAKTERISTIKA VED RSCT 16
3.3.2 SIKKERHEDSOPFATTELSEN I RSCT 18
3.3.3 INSULATOR-STAT BEGREBET 19
3.4 TEORIKRITIK 20
4.0 METODE 23
4.1 UNDERSØGELSESTYPE 23
4.2 ANALYSESTRATEGI 24
4.3 VARIABLE 27
4.4 KILDER 27
5.0 INTRODUKTION TIL ANALYSEN 30
6.0 RSC SYDASIEN 32
6.1 DET INTRA-STATSLIGE NIVEAU 33
6.1.1 INTRA-STATSLIGE FORHOLD I INDIEN 34
6.1.2 INTRA-STATSLIGE FORHOLD I PAKISTAN 36
6.1.3 INTRA-STATSLIGE FORHOLD I DE RESTERENDE STATER I KOMPLEKSET 40
6.2 DET REGIONALE NIVEAU 42
6.2.1 DEN DOMINERENDE KONFLIKTFORMATION - INDIEN OG PAKISTAN 42
6.2.1.1 Konflikten om Kashmir 43
6.2.1.2 Kernevåbens betydning for sikkerhedsmiljøet 46
6.2.2 REGIONALE KONFLIKTER MELLEM DE ØVRIGE STATER I KOMPLEKSET 48
6.2.3 DEN OVERORDNEDE MAGTSTRUKTUR I RSC SYDASIEN 49
6.3 DET INTER-REGIONALE NIVEAU 50
6.3.1 RSC SYDASIEN OG DET ASIATISKE SUPERKOMPLEKS 51
6.3.2 INDIENS FORHOLD TIL RSC CENTRALASIEN 53
6.3.3 PAKISTANS FORHOLD TIL AFGHANISTAN 55
6.4 DET GLOBALE NIVEAU 58
6.4.1 USA’S SIKKERHEDSPOLITIK: ET STABILT PAKISTAN 58
6.4.2 USA’S SIKKERHEDSPOLITIK: ET VENLIGTSINDET INDIEN 62
6.5 DELKONKLUSION 63
7.0 RSC MELLEMØSTEN 65
7.1 DET INTRA-STATSLIGE NIVEAU 67
7.1.1 DET ARABISKE FORÅR – ”REVOLUTIONÆRE”-STATER 68
7.1.2 DET ARABISKE FORÅR – ”STATUS QUO”-STATER 70
7.2 DET REGIONALE NIVEAU 72
7.2.1 ISRAEL-PALÆSTINA KONFLIKT 73
7.2.2 RIVALISERING MELLEM IRAN OG SAUDI-ARABIEN 76
7.3 DET INTER-REGIONALE NIVEAU 82
7.3.1 IRANS FORHOLD TIL AFGHANISTAN 82
7.3.2 FORHOLDET TIL RSC SYDASIEN 84
7.4 DET GLOBALE NIVEAU 86
7.4.1 USA'S SIKKERHEDSPOLITIK: OLIE OG MILITANT ISLAMISME 87
7.5 DELKONKLUSION 91
8.0 RSC CENTRALASIEN 93
8.1 DET INTRA-STATSLIGE NIVEAU 95
8.1.1 POLITISKE OG ØKONOMISKE REFORMER95
8.1.2 ISLAMISERING OG ETNICITET 100
8.2 DET REGIONALE NIVEAU 103
8.2.1 REGIONALE MAGTFORHOLD – MANGLENDE REGIONAL HEGEMON? 103
8.2.2 MANGLENDE REGIONALT SAMARBEJDE 105
8.3 DET INTER-REGIONALE NIVEAU 107
8.3.1 FORHOLDET TIL KINA OG RUSLAND 108
8.3.2 INTER-REGIONAL UDFORDRING: MILITANTE ISLAMISKE GRUPPERINGER 110
8.4 DET GLOBALE NIVEAU 113
8.4.1 USA’S SIKKERHEDSPOLITIK: MILITÆRE BASER, UDVIKLING OG INFRASTRUKTUR 114
8.4.2 USA’S SIKKERHEDSPOLITIK: ”THE GLOBAL WAR ON TERROR” OG NARKOTIKAØKONOMIEN 117
8.5 DELKONKLUSION 118
9.0 OPSAMLING AF ANALYSEN 121
10.0 DISKUSSION 124
10.1 SPILL-OVER EFFEKTERNES PÅVIRKNING AF DE STRATEGISKE MÅLSÆTNINGER 125
10.1.1 DE MILITÆRE MÅLSÆTNINGER 125
10.1.2 DE POLITISKE MÅLSÆTNINGER 129
10.1.3 DE CIVILE MÅLSÆTNINGER 131
10.1.4 DELKONKLUSION 133
10.2 RSC’ERNES ENGAGEMENT FOR OPNÅELSE AF STABILITET I AFGHANISTAN 134
10.2.1 OVERDRAGELSE AF SIKKERHEDSANSVARET TIL AFGHANERNE 135
10.2.2 SLUTSPILLET – FORHANDLINGER MED TALIBAN 137
10.2.3 DELKONKLUSION 139
11.0 KONKLUSION 141
12.0 PERSPEKTIVERING – STADIG EN INSULATOR-STAT? 145
13.0 LITTERATURFORTEGNELSE 149
 Note: -
 Type: Speciale
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